TIME: Almanac 1993/TIME Almanac 1993.iso/time/050889/05088900.030

Text File | 1992-09-23 | 6.0 KB | 113 lines

                                                                                WORLD, Page 46

PANAMA

Sparring (Again) with a Dictator


As Washington predicts a rigged election, U.S. policy remains
adrift


    The U.S. called him Panama's top narcotraficante, indicted
him in Florida and vowed to depose him. But General Manuel
Antonio Noriega still runs the country, and even though he will
not be standing for election on May 7, he looms as the power
behind the throne. Polls show that Noriega's handpicked
candidate for President, Carlos Duque, trails opposition
candidate Guillermo Endara by more than 2 to 1. Yet U.S.
officials and opposition leaders are convinced Duque will steal
the election. They charge that evidence of government chicanery
already abounds: manipulation of voter rolls to keep opponents
from the polls, coercion of public employees to vote the
government ticket, fraudulent registration practices that will
permit Noriega boosters to cast multiple ballots.

    The only real suspense seems to be just how far Noriega
will go to ensure Duque's triumph -- and how U.S. officials and
irate Panamanians will react when the tainted returns trickle
in. The Bush Administration is betting that the cocky Noriega
will trip on his own blind determination. As Washington sketches
it, Noriega's supporters will resort to such blatant electoral
fraud that Panamanians will take to the streets in furious
protest, sparking a brutish response from the Panama Defense
Forces. The international outcry will deepen Panama's diplomatic
isolation, and eventually the economic and political erosion
will reach such dire proportions that the military will abandon
Noriega. And then? "We'll let things collapse of their own
weight," says a senior Administration official.

    The scenario sounds all too familiar -- and implausible. In
February 1988, when Noriega was indicted on drug charges, the
Reagan Administration expected Noriega to flee in panic. He
stayed. Two months later Washington dispatched 1,300 additional
troops to U.S. bases in Panama, hoping their very presence would
cow Noriega into submission. It didn't. Then the U.S. imposed
limited economic sanctions, designed to choke off the country's
cash flow. The dollar shortage fell hardest on Panama's middle
class, who began to grumble about unreliable American allies.
That allowed Noriega to rally support inside as well as beyond
Panama by portraying himself as a victim of Yanqui aggression.
In the end, Washington managed only to devastate an economy that
was both prosperous and closely tied to the U.S. "We have in
fact severely damaged the Panamanian economy," says former
President Jimmy Carter, who will lead an international
delegation of observers to monitor the election.

    The Reagan policy vacuum has carried over into the Bush
era. Once again the State Department and the Pentagon are at
odds, and what passes for policy shows little promise of
dislodging the general. At a meeting convened by Bush in early
February, State argued that Noriega is a danger to U.S.
security; Defense countered that Noriega is a lesser evil than
any of the underlings likely to succeed him as commander in
chief. "Bush was very surprised to see that there was no unity,"
says an official. "He ended the meeting by telling everyone he
would make up his mind on his own." Shortly after that meeting,
Bush signed a secret presidential finding authorizing the CIA
to funnel $10 million into the opposition's political campaign.
Their candidates insist that none of the money has reached them,
but Noriega has capitalized on the U.S. interference to deflect
the election's focus from himself.

    If the election proves a sham, the U.S. will have to seize
the opportunity to bring international pressure to bear on
Noriega. "At a time when the world is having free elections,
including the Soviet Union and Poland, Panama is not," says
Richard Lugar, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations
Committee. "You need to make Noriega pay." To show its
disapproval, the U.S. could restrict visas issued to pro-Noriega
Panamanians, refuse to recognize the newly seated government,
and turn away any ambassador sent to Washington by the Duque
administration. The Administration wants to tighten sanctions,
but further economic deterioration might fuel an anti-U.S.
backlash. "When have economic sanctions ever toppled a regime?"
asks Ambler Moss, a former U.S. Ambassador to Panama.

    So far, Washington's game plan remains vague. The
Administration has pledged that no deal will be cut with
Noriega to quash the drug indictments. And a high-level official
says that a fraudulent election will prompt the U.S. to consider
new "diplomatic, intelligence and military" options, the first
time the Bush team has suggested an armed intervention.

    Other deadlines also press. Come September, the
presidential term of Eric Arturo Delvalle expires. Though he was
forced from office by Noriega 14 months ago, the U.S. continues
to recognizee the exiled Delvalle as the legitimate President,
and has used that handy fiction to withhold $86.5 million in
fees collected by the Panama Canal Commission. Bush must decide
what to do with those funds, which are legally owed to Panama.
Moreover, under the terms of the canal treaty, the American
administrator of the PCC must be replaced by a Panamanian by
January 1990. The U.S. Senate will have to approve the
candidate, and if he is closely linked to Noriega, a bitter
fight is certain.

    But Panama's problem is not just Noriega. The general's
friends say he is tired of facing down the gringos, but even if
he capitulates, there is little evidence that the defense forces
plan to retire to the barracks. "For real democracy to take
place in Panama," Moss warns, "it will be a long-term workout,
a gradual weaning away of the military from direct power." To
encourage that, the Bush Administration must enlist Latin
American allies. Recourse to the big stick will only sour
relations with the region.